Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Null Hypothesis

Convinced that there is no causal relationship between 2 events?  Firm believer in "innocent until proven guilty"?  That is the Null Hypothesis. 

The Null Hypothesis makes sense when applied... well, sensibly.  While correlation is a necessary prerequisite for causation, correlation does not necessarily indicate causation.

From Wiki: 

For any two correlated events, A and B, the different possible relationships include:
  • A causes B (direct causation);
  • B causes A (reverse causation);
  • A and B are consequences of a common cause, but do not cause each other;
  • A and B both causes C, which is (explicitly or implicitly) conditioned on.;
  • A causes B and B causes A (bidirectional or cyclic causation);
  • A causes C which causes B (indirect causation);
  • There is no connection between A and B; the correlation is a coincidence.
The last bullet item would indicate a Null Hypothesis:  No causal relationship.

Moving along...

'Twas another pit bull mauling in OK a few days ago.  An elderly woman walking her dog was killed by 2 at-large pit bulls.  Her head was nearly removed from her body. 

Of course, those coming to the defense of those dogs, and those like them, insist that the breed background of the mutt perpetrators had nothing to do with it.  Indeed, it was just something that happened.  Like having it rain on your birthday.   The fact that the dogs involved had the capacity to decapitate somebody was merely a coincidence.   Hey, she could had her head cut off by a goldfish, right?

Remember, according to dog worshippers and pit bull fanatics, the facts that pit bulls were bred to fight, and have the overall physical capacity to take down a grown man have nothing to do with any of this carnage.  To them, horrific events of this sort are strictly a coincidence.  Remember, its not pit bulls that kill, or even dogs.  Hell its not even mammals, or anything alive!   The victim in question could have died of anything, and the fact that this death involved game bred fight dogs with a bite strength of an industrial hydraulic press was strictly a coincidence.  The physical capacity and breed history of pit bulls to fight to the death is not implicated in any way, ever.  This is the Null Hypothesis of almost every dog mauling.   

Dog apologists and pit bull fanatics always try to act and sound smart.  I consider most of them to be a "95 IQ genius'" at best.  If you are on a forum and need a retort, try this: "You are abusing the Null Hypothesis".   I dunno if that IS smart, but it sure SOUNDS smart, doesn't it?

Have a great week!


Saturday, December 24, 2016

Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays All!

For those of you with outdoor pets on this very cold holiday season, I offer you this:


YUM!

Sunday, July 17, 2016

Post Hogmageddon

After my first, not so great attempt at hog hunting, I had a winner!   I shot dead a 320+ pound wild hog!   I put in the "+" because he exceeded the weight of the scale.  This was one big hog, it took 3 of us to haul it onto the ATV's trailer:


This one shot dead as a doornail at 50 yards.  BLAM!  And, he keeled over.   Not a very difficult shot at that distance. 

Below is Mr. Piggy taking a shower, courtesy of the outfitter:


In my utter magnanimity, I will not gross you out with any butchering photos.

Onto the gun p0rn:

The indicated weapon was a Savage Model 16 calibered in .243 Winchester.  Power-wise, the .243 occupies a spot in between the .223 and the .308.   The rifle is topped off with a Nikon 3x9 power scope. Total cost - $700.00

Here are some photos of this beauty on the range:


Feeds from a 4 round detachable box magazine, seen below.







Here are some range results:

The following is a 100 yard group using Federal "Power Shok" 100 grain soft point bullets - Sub MOA using medium quality ammunition.  Savage makes a great rifle for the money.  I used this ammo on Mr. Piggy.




Below is a 50 yard group shooting the same stuff.  Note the "figure 8" and the floater.  The 3rd round was at 8 O'clock low.  I get the same sort of results with my Remington 700:  First 2 shots are almost through the same hole, then the 3rd opens up the group.  I estimate this is due to the barrel heading up, thus causing more "barrel whip" on the 3rd shot:


Now, does anyone know why I shoot pretty much right on target at 50 yards, but an inch or so high at 100?  A big smiley-face for anyone who knows the answer.

So many hogs.... so little time....

Sunday, June 19, 2016

The train never stops crashing

More on my #1 muse!

"Mickey had his check up today, and he has a clean bill of health. No lumps, bumps or any other nasty thing.
His skin was a little irritated, so he is now being bathed and massaged 3 times a week. (basically a spa day 3 times a week). This has worked great, and as noted above he looks great!
We do not want to jinx our guy, but right now he has the best attitude, in the best shape, and in the best condition physically/medically possibly ever...
He was very happy and excited to see John, though he did wear out after awhile, as pictured in this photo!"


If this is a troll, it is a very good one.

Mick has no cancer, so why is he still in the 5 star veterinary facility?  Do we not return home after we are cured?  Should he not be returned to the jail as per the COURT ORDER?   He now appears to be in top shape for mauling - is the public not at risk?

How many of us working, tax paying, HUMAN, members of the political body get this sort of consideration?

As usual:



Thursday, June 2, 2016

Peak Fido

Fads come and go.  Some last a few months, some can last almost a century.   In a way, a fad is like an economic bubble.  Remember when dot.com stocks were all the rage?   Now, the survivors are a utility:  Only those sites with a legit business model survived.   Pursuant to that, how often to we hear Disco on the radio these days?   While all the rage in the 1970's, today you're lucky to hear anything from the Saturday Night Fever soundtrack on your local oldies station.

Good article on Anilak.com the other day.   Link is to the right.  The author, after having been ravaged by barking abuse and other dog related matters, is finding the situation much improved.

The author writes:

"Silent nights.
Yes, several nights in a row that you hear NO BARKING. Not a single bark. At all!
Seems that all mutts have vanished from the face of earth and normalcy came back, turning our times of sleep civilly again."

So, where did all the mutts go?   Were they vacuumed up by space aliens?  I've noted a bit of the same in my area recently.  I haven't had a nearby barker in over a year, and the larger neighborhood is quieter, too.   Recent RV (caravan) excursions have indicated less dog lunacy, as well.   Little to no barking, fewer dogs off leash, less dog poop everywhere. 

While I certainly can't complain, I find the turn of events interesting.  What is going on?

Consider that these anecdotes do not by themselves indicate a trend.  The most likely reason for my recent barking relief at home is probably due to the fact that I literally ran some nuisance barkers out of here.   I ramped up the counter-aggression until they couldn't take it anymore.   I estimate that the other dog fanatics don't want to put themselves through a grinding neighborhood trench war they are nearly sure to lose.   The big stick DOES work.

That said, everything I am reading about and experiencing first hand gives me a gut feeling that the "dog bubble" is deflating, and may be doing so at a rapid pace.   I am going "Bearish" on dog mania!

Consider this chart.  It illustrates the pathology of a bubble:



I could have a field day (or decade) comparing the above to the dog mania we've experienced the past 10 years or so.  I intend to write a series of articles on the evolution of the cult of the dog within the past 70 years.  In short, it appears that the modern dog cult started in the mid-20th century, increased in scope over succeeding decades, and became a mania in the early 2000's.

Fads (bubbles) fade and go away when the general population gets bored with the object of the fad.   The fad consumes more and more resources, and at some point a tipping point is reached and most people head for the door.   The social and political capital invested in Fido is not producing returns.   Many dog owners, disappointed that they did not get the cartoon dog they bargained for, drop out of the dog owning demographic.  This dynamic is exacerbated by the hatred, outrage, and disgust aimed dogs and their owners by a bitter, battered larger public.  Being a dog lover may no longer increase one's social status.

Based on the chart above, I would say society hit the "delusional" phase a few years ago.  Dog lawyers?  Give me a break.   The entire "Mickey" debacle was an attempt to superimpose a Disney-esque ethic over reality.  The result was a train wreck of epic proportions.

Looking forward to the "Fear" phase... that should be interesting.

Have a great evening!



Sunday, March 27, 2016

Mickety MickMick Mickers!

Allahu Mickbar and Happy Easter my friends!   Just when you thought it was safe to walk the streets, the Mickmaster train wreck continues!


Don't you just LOVE the smug arrogance on display, here?  Not only are they defying a court order, but they are doing it out in the open!  They even advertise it on the Watch Mickey Beat Cancer Page!

While not sure of the precise details, I am confident that the above is a flagrant violation of a court order.  Wasn't the mutt supposed to be confined in the jail, or similar facility, for the rest of its life?  I suppose they could argue that the beast is being "escorted" by a law enforcement official, thus putting it into a grey area, but WHAT THE HELL PEOPLE?!

Dog nutters really love to push the envelope... they keep doing it until something happens, then blame someone else!  

Consider this - what happens if Mick attacks someone while on one of these leisurely strolls?   They sure as hell can't argue that they didn't know the dog was dangerous... it was sentenced to life for attacking a kid!   I suppose one line of defense might be that they argue that Mickey isn't really "THE" Mickey of internet fame, merely another Bulldog that looks like St. Mick.   Of course, then they would be forced to declare that Mickey is a Fake.   Would be VERY interesting to watch that unfold.

I estimate that these folks actually believe their own BS - that if they love a dog enough, it becomes totally harmless.  ALL dog bites are due to abuse and neglect, right?  That is why its always the victim's fault... they must have done something to antagonize poor Fido!  

On a slightly different note, the internet frenzy over dear MickBar has not subsided.  Forces are at work to white-wash the past of the Dear Mickster.  Consider this sobby story.   In short, a dog with flowers on its head would never hurt anybody.  How can you argue seamless logic like that?



As usual:





Enjoy the rest of your weekend!


Tuesday, March 8, 2016

The Padster Strikes Again!

In a not-so-shocking development, "Padi" the ear-eater has struck again!

Here is Dogsbite Decatur AL's article on the issue.

Here is my backstory on PADI.

Excerpts:

A Manatee County dog that was given a second chance after biting a child is under investigation again. Deputies say the dog named Padi is now accused of biting a 4-month-old puppy on the nose at his owner's veterinary clinic. The sheriff's office says Dr. Garenberg could face criminal charges.

Now, if they had taken MY advice and killed the damn thing after the last attack, this would not have happened!

Why was Padi not only spared, but left to CONTINUE to run loose in Gartenburg's office?  ...Soon a Free Padi Facebook page racked up more than 27,000 like and hundreds of supporters turned out at county commission meetings and at the hearing in November.   Yep, the dog-worshiping crusade was out in full force!

His owner asked a judge to spare the dog's life; the judge ruled that the dog wasn't dangerous. Sarasota Judge Andrew Owens ruled Florida's 25-year-old dog bite law unconstitutional calling it "arbitrary and unduly oppresssive." That move released Padi.

These folks need to learn the basic definitions of words.  There was nothing "Arbitrary" about the original decision to destroy Padi... the dog attacked a 4 year old!   If that is not a good reason to put down a dog, then what is?

Pursuant to that, there is also nothing "Oppressive" about killing a dog that attacks children.  You want to know what is REALLY oppressive?  This "anarcho-tyrannical" regime that dictates that dog owners get to attack us any place, any time and for any or no reason and there is NOTHING we can do about it!  That regime, my friends, is VERY OPPRESSIVE. 

I might have been overwhelmed by the rank foolishness of Gartenburg and Padi's rank-and-file fans, but for the fact that these people are by definition totally delusional.  In their world, dogs and dog owners can do no wrong.  The victim was blamed for the last "encounter" so they figured that there was no need to contain PADI.

I truly hope PADI gets his long overdue dirt-nap, and does not move on to permanently maim someone as Gus did.